How to Analyze Using Detailed Matchups by VMI Ranges

Posted: 2022-07-12 19:28:40 (ET)    [ 5451 views ]

Below, I have gone through the Oakland at Texas game of July 11, 2022 in order to give you some aspects to consider as you decide which players to select for your fantasy line-up.

Total Pitching (all pitchers) for OAK scored high as Reverse with the following team pitching T-L-R scores:

• Tight: -4.69
• Loose: -23.17
• Reverse: 71.34
• Knuckle: 0.00

Utilizing the new Enhanced Daily Match-Ups, the following are analysis I feel are pertinent:

Texas Hitters:

First, keep in mind that the only pitcher we know ahead of time in terms of team manager decisions is the starter, Martinez for Oakland this day.  Ahead of game time he was listed as a Reverse 69 pitcher, which means he throws almost no 4-seamers.  We also know that he focuses primarily on Sinkers and offsets it with Sliders.   Overall, we know he gives up 4.0 hits per outing.  The hits would mostly be against his Sinker and therefore Reverse hitters would be the most probable best selections.  

Since Texas' VMI was minus 0.29, we know the hitters will not be fooled by extra movement, so we need only be concerned about their focus (which could go either way) and pitch placement (of which we have little idea how that might go.)  But we do have the list of the opposing line-up that indicates the strengths of the Texas hitters.  So we (as daily fantasy players) should look for hitters that are used to being successful off, 1) the Reverse pitches, and secondly the fastball, because most managers will look for a pitcher-type that is different from the starter when making later inning changes.   Unfortunately for Oakland, the manager did not. But the game was very close. 

 Martinez (Reverse 70.00)  

 Strikes of:                  Sliders    9                     Sinkers    32                     Change-Ups    10
 Hits  4  against:           Slider     1                      Sinker      3                           Change       0

What actually took place was:

Nathaniel Lowe  designated at  T-6  went  2 for 3 from the top tier, which makes sense because he is a fastball hitter in this VMI Range.    Lowe got his hits on Slider and Sinker, so he will be more balanced between Tight and Reverse on his next indicator. 

Leody Taveras  listed as  T-1 from the bench of utility players, went 3 for 4, which would have been difficult to know whether he was going to play. T-1 tells us he is just as good at hitting both the fastball and slider/cutter grouping of the Tight pitching as he is the slider/sinker combos of Reverse pitching.   Taveras got his hits on Slider, Change-Up and Sinker, so he will most likely be a low Reverse on his next outing.

All the other hitters that got hits were held to 1 hit each, but were mostly those who were low score Reverse hitters.  As you can see above (see the top of this summary), the team of Oakland pitchers ended the game with a very high score of 71 Reverse.  So, all the Oakland pitchers just kept throwing downward breaking pitches.  It was sure to cause them problems and it cost them a close game. Eight of Texas' hits came off sinkers and sliders and they added a change-up hit.

As For Oakland's Performance:

Total Pitching (all pitchers) for TEX scored high as Reverse with the following team pitching T-L-R scores:

• Tight: -18.19
• Loose: -17.08
• Reverse: 33.67
• Knuckle: 0.00

Utilizing the new Enhanced Daily Match-Ups, the following are analysis I feel are pertinent:

Texas Pitching:

First, keep in mind that the only pitcher we know ahead of time in terms of team manager decisions is the starter, Howard of Texas.  He was listed as a Tight 10 within this VMI range, which means he throws fewer 4-seamers than the average mlb pitcher, but throws enough  typical Tight complimentary pitches to be in the Tight category.  Overall, he scores as Loose, using a number of other off-setting pitches such as curves.  His other pitches are listed on our site before the game and indicate he throws very few of each, but several loose and several reverse pitches are in his primary combination of pitch selections.  Overall, we know he gives up 3.6 hits per outing.  The hits would mostly be against his 4-seamer, because he usually throws mostly that pitch, but against Oakland he threw mostly cutters and sinkers. 

Howard (Loose 19.55 - within all VMI ranges) against Oakland:

Strikes   of:         4-Seamers =    7   -   Cutters  =  20   -   Sinkers    = 20   -   Curves =   6

Oakland Hitters  against Howard:

Hits  6 against:    4-Seam     =    1   -     Cutter     =  3    -     Sinker   =  2   -   Curve   =   0

Overall against Texas they got twelve hits on the four-seamer (2), cutter (5), sinker (2), slider (1) and change-up (2).

Their VMI being at +3.85 tells us they should hit the tight pitches, because the 4-seamer isn't moving more than they are used to seeing.  The off-setting pitches to the 4-seamer are not unusual either, so they should be quite comfortable in Texas on this day.  And, they were.

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