Posted: 2021-10-05 08:25:28 (ET) [ 1188 views ]
Webb is unique and uses a one-seam and a two seam configuration in side-arm (east-west) delivery to achieve good late verticle and horizontal movement in a heavy air environment. LA struggled, but in the end, the Change-up and the Fastball were the achillies heel for the Giants. For the Giants, I was concerned about getting the change-up hit at a high percentage to strikes thrown. Webb threw only 1 strike identified as a 4-seamer, but the bull pen used it more traditionally for three hits
Web scored as a Reverse Pitcher (81.23); Tight (12.92) and Loose (-31.11)
Logan Webb - 2021-10-14
ADI Range/ 70.00 to 74.99 (4.0 hits/outing) Abnormally Good Movement; Hitter Setting Up Low
Pitch Type Thrown Strike Strike % Speed % Type Hits % H/S
Four Seam 2 1 50.00% 94 1.89% 0 0.00%
Slider 35 18 51.43% 83 33.02% 0 0.00%
Change Up 35 23 65.71% 88 33.02% 3 13.04%
Sinker 34 28 82.35% 94 32.08% 1 3.57%
Actually, I'm changing my statement, below. After looking at each pitcher more closely--I fell into the Reverse pitcher trap just like I've warned you about. Webb is a reverse pitcher (however he is calculated as a Tight, because he throws a fairly high combination of 4-seam and sliders). He throws sinkers at a rate of 34% in this VMI range, Change-Ups at a rate of 30% and Sliders at a rate of 26%. That is a recipe for disaster against a VMI team of "talented" hitters gauged at -3.94. Webb must get the sinker and slider into the zone at some point and a -4 VMI is enough to give the Dodgers an advantage. Plus, that is a lot of change-ups and he gets that pitch hit at a clip of 11.86% of strikes. The Giants had better have a true tight pitcher ready to go...
SF @ LA - Great pitching, of course, and who knows if it was near perfect pitchers, or near perfect conditions. SF was high plus when you want to be careful with the 4-seamer and Sherzer was great with that pitch, plus he had to use something to offset it. LA hitters were only slightly above +3 VMI or about 1/2 inch above the 4-seamer, but sinkers and sliders should be the go to pitches and Wood did a great job throwing the best pitches under the conditions. I'd say it turned out to be a clinic for great pitching at a great time for those two pitchers to face each other.
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10/9/21 - Post Game Comments Dodgers @ Giants
Shooting another warning at you...sorry for the constant warnings about reverse and loose pitchers...but downward breaking pitches against a team that is a greater than minus 3 VMI is scary. The Dodgers were out of their normal element at a -4.40 VMI. Most of you probably know about it now, but that means the LA hitters are setting up a little low for today's 4-seamer, but closer to the downward breaking pitches. If they are struggling with the 4-seamer, then they are hoping for the downward pitch. All pitchers for San Francisco combined to keep the Dodgers in check on the 4-seamer at a hit rate of 5.8% to strikes seen. Normally that is 9.78% for LA.
The scary part of last nights game was Gausman's penchant to throw splitters at a high rate.
Dodgers VS Kevin Gausman - 10-09-21
ADI Range/70.00 to 74.99 Kevin Gausman (4.0 hits/outing)
Abnormally Good Movement Hitter Setting Up Low
Pitch Type Thrown Strike Str% Speed %Type Hits %Hits
Four Seam 41 29 70.73% 97 48.81% 1 3.45%
Slider 14 8 57.14% 86 16.67% 0 0.00%
Change Up 2 1 50.00% 85 2.38% 0 0.00%
Splitter 27 16 59.26% 86 32.14% 3 18.75%
PITCH-MIX SCORES:
Tight: 12.86 ( 18.81 1.67 0.00 -7.62 0.00 )
Loose: 39.95 ( 18.81 0.00 0.00 0.00 21.14 )
Reverse: -12.62 ( -33.81 6.67 0.00 -7.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 22.14 )
Gausman got by with the sliders, but only because he didn't over-use it and he kept it more off the plate. The bull-pen used it over and over and they got shelled for 5 hits. Gausman's Splitter got him in trouble.
(Starter's pitches only.) LAD BATTING RESULTS (Against all pitchers, this game.)
Pitch Type Speed Thrown Strikes Str % Thrown Strikes Hits Hit %
Four Seam 97 41 29 70.7% 73 52 3 5.8%
Slider 86 14 8 57.1% 27 17 5 29.4%
Change Up 85 2 1 50.0% 5 3 0 0.0%
Curve 0 0 0 0.0% 5 5 0 0.0%
Cutter 0 0 0 0.0% 3 2 0 0.0%
Splitter 86 27 16 59.3% 27 16 3 18.8%
10/8/21 - Post Game Comments Red Sox @ Tampa Bay
Boston had enough hits to have won their game and yet they just couldn't get runners around. Nothing I can point out due to the conditions. Just one of those games for Boston and no need to worry.
10/8/21 - Post Game Comments White Sox @ Houston
The reason I worried about the four-seamer before the game, is found in my comments on the website under pitch-mix. Both teams were minus 3 and minus 2 VMI. McCullers being a reverse pitcher against a low minus VMI team is a little better, but not much. However, against the 4-seamer, minus 2 VMI tells us the 4-seamer will be lifting only about 3/8 of an inch more than the -2 VMI team (Houston) is recently used to seeing and therefore setting up for. The extra movement today for the home team is certainly not outside their norm. Three eights of an inch additional movement can be noticed by MLB hitters. It is an easy adjustment to make and can be done by either a roll of the wrist, or a slight lift of the elbows to get the barrel up on that pitch.
Lynn over-used the four-seamer against a minus 2.xx team and Houston made him pay. He could not have known this in advance unless he was really into the VMI.
65.00 to 69.99 ADI Lance Lynn's Outing 6 hits
Good MLB Movement Hitter Challenged
Pitch Type Thrown Strikes Strike % Speed % Type Hits Percent
Four Seam Fastball 30 20 66.67 97 39.47 4 20.00%
Change Up 1 0 0.00 94 1.32 0 0.00%
Curve 1 0 0.00 85 1.32 0 0.00%
Sinker 19 11 57.89 95 25.00 1 9.09%
Cutter 25 14 56.00 92 32.89 1 7.14%
10/7/21 - Pre Game Comments White Sox @ Houston
Both teams are within a close range of their normal playing conditions. Both should be dangerous against the four-seamer, but McCullers throws fewer of those than does Lynn. Lynn gives up 5.4 hits per outing and McCullers gives up 4.7 hits per outing.
10/7/21 - Pre Game Comments Red Sox @ Tampa Bay
Both pitchers are Tight pitchers, but Rodriguez throws 6 pitch types causing him to be very close to a Loose pitcher (or Junker) However, both pitchers also have a 4.9 hits per outing rate indicating a very close game while those two pitchers are in the game. Neither team is out of their element, so it should be entertaining.
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Game Date: 2021-10-06
VMI HITS RUNS
St. Louis -0.29 5 1 LOSS
LA Dodgers -1.39 7 3 WIN
LAD: Max Scherzer (Tight 37.39) ADI: 63.64
(Starter's pitches only.) STL BATTING RESULTS
(Against all pitchers, this game.)
Pitch Type Top Thrown Strikes Strike % Thrown Strikes Hits Percent
Speed
Four Seam 96 42 30 71.4% 52 35 1 2.9%
Slider 88 31 19 61.3% 48 28 0 0.0%
Change Up 87 9 3 33.3% 9 3 0 0.0%
Curve 78 7 3 42.9% 17 9 1 11.1%
Sinker 0.0 0 0 0.0 20 18 0 0.0%
Cutter 91 5 4 80.0% 20 14 3 21.4%
In hindsight it appears that St. Louis did lose focus. Not taking away from both teams' terrific pitching, but St. Louis was not out of their element except for emotionally. It has been awhile since the Cards have been in the post-season so many of these players experienced it as a rare event. As you can see, the Four-Seamer was hit only once out of 35 strikes thrown. The league success rate is about 9% hits/strike thrown on that pitch. Scherzer's hit rate is 6.62% against his four-seamer. The Cardinals, including their new prized 3rd baseman achieved less than 3% hits on 35 strikes.
10/6/21 - Pre Game Comments
St Louis' run might be over, but psychologically, they may play up to their opponent's level. Both teams are familiar with opposing pitchers and the ADI is very average today. Look for a reasonably higher scoring game today.
Since the Cardinals sport an 0.29 VMI, I should point out something here: During the regular season, a team does not hit the zero something VMI until they have played about 6 games in the same environment. After about 5 games, the hitters periodically lose their focus. In a one game play-in scenario, I don't think that will happen to St. Louis.
10/5/21 - Yankees 2 @ Red Sox 6 - Cole under used his slider and over used his change-up. ____it happens! Anytime a team of hitters get 1 hit before 10 strikes are seen against any pitch-type, that pitch is dangerous in that particular game. In abnormally heavy air and very good movement, the curve may have been able to be used more to have given him time to control it better.
70.00 to 74.99 (4.0 hits/outing)
Abnormally Good Movement
Pitch Type Pitches Strikes Str % MPH % Type Hits % Hits/Str
Four Seam Fastball 23 14 60.87 99 46.00 2 14.29%
Slider 15 10 66.67 89 30.00 0 0.00%
Change Up 7 4 57.14 91 14.00 2 50.00%
Curve 5 2 40.00 84 10.00 0 0.00%
10/5/21 - Pre Game Comments
The weather report has improved from 21% chances of rain to about 7% at game time, so hopefully there will be no rain issue for today. We show these two teams to be extremely close in power and probability. If neither starting pitcher over uses his favorite pitches, then this could be a very low scoring affair while they are in.
If it comes down to the bull-pens, it appears to favor the Yankees by a small margin.
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